The brains-trust of MyThinks has been crunching the numbers following the election day result. Our analysis has offered up some very interesting possibilities in terms of the make up of the next parliament.
National / New Zealand First
The most likely outcome. New Zealand First have a history of forming coalitions with the party winning the largest share of the vote. National have a history of doing just about anything to stay in power. A National /NZ First government would probably have Bill English as Prime Minister and Winston Peters as Minister of Whatever He Wants. Paula Bennett will be left out in the cold and given something unimportant like sports or tourism. Look for Gerry Brownlee to order a new speakers chair after breaking the old one.
Labour / New Zealand First / Greens
An unlikely scenario as Winston Peters has ruled out ever working with the Greens, unless he gets exactly what he wants, in which case this is possible. Since Labour are not National this is not really on the cards. The Greens have said they are happy to work with Winston so this could be an option, but Winston thinks they are a bunch of dirty hippies, so this is highly unlikely.
Labour / New Zealand First with support from the Greens
Possible. Helen Clark’s last parliament left the Greens on the cross benches supporting Labour on confidence and supply. Since Winston has said he won’t work with the Greens it is possible Labour could go with this option. Watch in the coming days for National and its proxies to repeat over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again that they are the largest party in parliament and therefore it is written into lore they must form the next government. With the media wanting an instant solution to the those claims to round off their 24 hour news cycle, this could put a nail in this coffin for Labour.
National / Green
Not content to have destroyed the Māori Party, United Future, nearly New Zealand First and almost ACT, National proxies have today suggested the Greens start sniffing around for some baubles of power. Far right commentator Matthew Hooton said James Shaw could be Climate Change Minister in the new National government. National don’t really believe in climate change so it would be like putting Helen Clark in charge of dishing out knighthoods. No, Hoots is only suggesting this because he knows a) the Greens would never do it so he can take the moral high ground if they go with Labour, and b) if, by some bizarre stroke of fate, do decide to do it, then National can take them out (and not the pleasant table for two at Denny’s take you out, the Tony Soprano concrete gumboots take you out).
National minority government
National could try to run it alone. After all, Bill English said almost half of New Zealand voted for him. Tough shit that over half voted against him. A minority government would be doomed to failure so, by all means, crack on.
National / Labour
There’s nothing stopping these to neoliberal centrist parties creating a grand coalition. Except the inability of all of Labour to prevent a little bit of sick leaping into the back of their throat every time they thought about it.
ACT-led minority government
Feasibly ACT could cobble together a loose arrangement with some of the larger parties in parliament (at last count, that was all of them). In that way ACT could be the first single seat minnow party to lead a western government. But back in the real world where relevance is a key issue, with just 0.5% of the party vote, ACT might now be the Nigel NoMates of New Zealand politics.
Greens-led party coalition
The Greens could throw caution to the wind and ask individual like-minded MPs from any party to join them for a party on the roof of Bowen House. This has nothing to do with what we’ve been talking about but one can only imagine the quality of the craft beer at this gathering.
PR guru and far-right enthusiast Matthew Hooton tries to run the government from inside the plush offices of the Taxpayer’s Union. WhaleOil and David Farrar get wind of it and tell on him to Judith Collins. National implodes after six months in power and the country heads back to the polls.
Nobody has any idea what the hell Winston Peters is going to do so we should all just go about our normal everyday business until the National Party bribes him the most and they sign the contract.
ACT leader and Minor Secretary for Education David Seymour has clarified the half-million dollar payout to a key ally for the National Party chartnership schools policy. The $500,000 payout, made by the government to the E Tipu E Rea Trust, a new body set up to promote and support the controversial schooling model, was revealed by various media outlets earlier this week.
Seymour, who has also championed the policy, held a press conference today to clarify the payment. MyThinks was there and we have the transcript.
SEYMOUR: Hello everyone. Thank you all for coming. It’s good to see so many people following the recent ACT Party conference held in the lounge of my Epsom flat. I just wanted to clear a few things up surrounding the confusion about this money. This was a payment of $500,000 dollars to a charity looking at promoting our wonderful chartnership school concept. It just so happens they are many of the same people who voted National and got loads of selfies with John Key the last time he was in South Auckland in 2009. That’s entirely coincidental. Like running into your friend at the mall when you are both buying satsumas, for example. Are you expecting us to give money just to chartnership school operators who vote Labour and Greens? That’s just ridiculous. There are none of those anywhere in the world. I would also like to point out that this National-led government, with its strong partners in ACT, UnitedFuture and the Māori Party, have consistently said it’s not what you do it’s how you do it. We are leading by example giving out hundreds of thousands of dollars to anybody willing to promote our policies. That, quite frankly, is common sense. If you have billions of dollars at your disposal, why wouldn’t you flick a few hundy to some blokes who agree with the educational policies we have. And… who asked you anyway. Shut up. Just shut up. Nanananananaaannnannanaaa I’m not listening, not listening.
So thank you all for coming. I need to head off now because I’ve got a Year 12 Geography test to do, so thanks very much.
Greetings again everybody. Under-secretary for stuff David Seymour here just with a few words of advice for any budding new MPs out there.
As you may or may not know, all the ministers in the latest Key government were sworn in under a blood moon this week. As you might suspect, there were the usual rituals of swearing an oath to Queen Elizabeth and sacrificing a baby goat, but the most exciting bit was receiving our ‘to-do list’ from Mr Key.
There was only one thing on my to-do list. If anyone asks Ms Parata about charter schools or privatisation of poor schools in poor areas I’m to immediately jump up and say how excited I am about the ACT Party’s charter school ideas that we’ve managed to sell to the government. Mr Key says it’s important that the New Zealand public are clear in understanding that National’s charter school policy is not their charter school policy.
That’s absolutely fine by me. Technically, since the ACT Party doesn’t really exist, any situation where the ACT Party talks about itself in this way is most exciting. Our major and very generous benefactors – the New Zealand taxpayer (without whom we’d be up a certain creek with no paddle, no boat and completely unable to keep our head above the sludge) – really want to hear what we have to say. I mean the ACT Party received over 0.65% of the vote at the last election. That’s hundreds and hundreds of votes. It’s a mandate.
Speaking of mandates, I am very much looking forward to my first cabinet meeting this week. Of course, I’m not allowed in the big room at the big table. That’s reserved for Mr Key and Mr English and all the other people who have real jobs in this administration. No, there’s an extra table for me and Peter Dunne outside the Cabinet room. We get to colour in pictures of Sir Robert while we wait for Mr Key to come out and tell us what to say next.
If there’s one thing I’ve learnt from Mr Key this year is that selfies are the single most important thing for securing votes. I was door-knocking in Epsom the other day (just in case people had forgotten about me in the two weeks since the election) and imagine my surprise when I was greeting by a small gaggle of private school children all dressed as well-known feminist Miley Cyrus. After spending several minutes laughing about how out of touch the Labour Party is and how amazing alcopops are as an afternoon aperitif, we went our separate ways. I was humbled by the reception and was promised several hundred votes at the 2020 elections.
Oh well… I’d better be off. I’ve got several hundred doors to knock on today. Epsom is a large electorate and as National Party MP for Epsom it is hugely important to me to get out there and talk to as many pre-ball parties as possible.
Hello New Zealand. I’m David Seymour – the new ACT Party member of parliament for the safe National seat of Epsom. I am hugely excited about representing both the interests of my constituents and those of the six people who still believe ACT to be a vibrant political force. Our combined party vote of 0.7% shows just how relevant we are.
What an exciting week it has been. I came to parliament on Tuesday morning not really knowing what to expect and who would have believed that parliament would be what it is. The ACT Party offices are adorned with some beautiful artwork, some of it quite modern and not to my taste, but I do understand that it is very good so I am happy to have it above my desk no matter how naked the subject is. The plant in the corner is a bit dead, but I am utterly convinced it can be nurtured back to health if I prune it at the base of the trunk.
After a lengthy 10 minute caucus meeting where I enjoyed my own company and talked about me, the ACT juggernaut went out into the corridors of parliament to soak up the atmosphere. As I walked near the Beehive I could hear both the maniacal laughter coming from the National Party offices and the tortuous screams coming from the Labour end of parliament. It really is an exciting time if you are not Labour.
I was also excited to hear during the week that John Key and his National Party have decided to allow me the honour of serving as one of minister Hekia Parata’s many minions with an associate education portfolio. I have long admired Ms Parata for her unwavering commitment to education policies that have wreaked havoc in so many jurisdictions around the world. Her abilities to speak for minutes at a time without uttering a single word of phrase of note is legendary among those of us who never wish to say anything. She is a true shining light in the coal-mine of indifference.
How nice of National to offer me this position. They didn’t have to. I was happy to sit in parliament and accept a range of anonymous donations from my wealthy benefactors, but to now be part of the parliamentary machine and receive hundreds of thousands of dollars of tax-free cash at no expense to our party is truly humbling. I would also like a new car, a gym membership and some of those little soaps and shampoos you get when you stay in a fancy hotel. They always leave me smelling quite nice.
So it is with excited hands and an indefatigable dedication to my job as Epsom MP for the National Party that I enter parliament. I promise to spend the next three years as your MP utterly committed to doing everything I am told to do by the National Party and the various tobacco, alcohol and food groups I actually represent.
Greetings and salutations to you all.
I am John Archibald Banks and I’m here to clear the air following my sentencing yesterday on trumped-up and, quite frankly, ludicrous charges of electoral fraud.
Let me categorically state here and now, for the record, that I, John Archibald Banks, am not guilty of this heinous crime. It is quite clear from the evidence presented to the court that I asked for the $50,000 donation from the unnamed German helicopter owner to be cleft in twain and clearly did not read my electoral finances return before signing it thereby creating some level of plausible deniability. As fraudulent as this appears, I am not guilty. I know I’m not guilty because constitutional law professor Michelle Boag says I’m not guilty. Therefore, I am not guilty.
It is utterly outrageous that I will be confined to my luxury Remuera villa from the time I usually get home at night until the time I usually leave in the morning. This is clearly an infringement on my basic human rights. It also goes to show just how biased the justice system is to elderly down-trodden multi-millionaire white men such as myself.
I would like to say at this time that I have some astounding new evidence that I will blow the lid off both this case and all the cabbage boats in New Zealand. Many people have been asking me what this brand-new evidence is. Why has it taken so long to come to light? Why didn’t you have it in your hands during your trial? You could have given yourself a more solid defence.
Yes indeed. All of this is true. What’s important to remember is that although I am seen by many to be a failed talk-show host come losing mayor come absolute joke of a politician, this evidence will be drip fed in such a way that my very good friends at the New Zealand Herald will have made up their own story about David Cunliffe long before everyone else realises that I’m absolutely full of shit.
I think you’ll all agree it’s an excellent strategy.
Banksie is back, baby. You better believe it.