The brains-trust of MyThinks has been crunching the numbers following the election day result. Our analysis has offered up some very interesting possibilities in terms of the make up of the next parliament.
National / New Zealand First
The most likely outcome. New Zealand First have a history of forming coalitions with the party winning the largest share of the vote. National have a history of doing just about anything to stay in power. A National /NZ First government would probably have Bill English as Prime Minister and Winston Peters as Minister of Whatever He Wants. Paula Bennett will be left out in the cold and given something unimportant like sports or tourism. Look for Gerry Brownlee to order a new speakers chair after breaking the old one.
Labour / New Zealand First / Greens
An unlikely scenario as Winston Peters has ruled out ever working with the Greens, unless he gets exactly what he wants, in which case this is possible. Since Labour are not National this is not really on the cards. The Greens have said they are happy to work with Winston so this could be an option, but Winston thinks they are a bunch of dirty hippies, so this is highly unlikely.
Labour / New Zealand First with support from the Greens
Possible. Helen Clark’s last parliament left the Greens on the cross benches supporting Labour on confidence and supply. Since Winston has said he won’t work with the Greens it is possible Labour could go with this option. Watch in the coming days for National and its proxies to repeat over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again that they are the largest party in parliament and therefore it is written into lore they must form the next government. With the media wanting an instant solution to the those claims to round off their 24 hour news cycle, this could put a nail in this coffin for Labour.
National / Green
Not content to have destroyed the Māori Party, United Future, nearly New Zealand First and almost ACT, National proxies have today suggested the Greens start sniffing around for some baubles of power. Far right commentator Matthew Hooton said James Shaw could be Climate Change Minister in the new National government. National don’t really believe in climate change so it would be like putting Helen Clark in charge of dishing out knighthoods. No, Hoots is only suggesting this because he knows a) the Greens would never do it so he can take the moral high ground if they go with Labour, and b) if, by some bizarre stroke of fate, do decide to do it, then National can take them out (and not the pleasant table for two at Denny’s take you out, the Tony Soprano concrete gumboots take you out).
National minority government
National could try to run it alone. After all, Bill English said almost half of New Zealand voted for him. Tough shit that over half voted against him. A minority government would be doomed to failure so, by all means, crack on.
National / Labour
There’s nothing stopping these to neoliberal centrist parties creating a grand coalition. Except the inability of all of Labour to prevent a little bit of sick leaping into the back of their throat every time they thought about it.
ACT-led minority government
Feasibly ACT could cobble together a loose arrangement with some of the larger parties in parliament (at last count, that was all of them). In that way ACT could be the first single seat minnow party to lead a western government. But back in the real world where relevance is a key issue, with just 0.5% of the party vote, ACT might now be the Nigel NoMates of New Zealand politics.
Greens-led party coalition
The Greens could throw caution to the wind and ask individual like-minded MPs from any party to join them for a party on the roof of Bowen House. This has nothing to do with what we’ve been talking about but one can only imagine the quality of the craft beer at this gathering.
PR guru and far-right enthusiast Matthew Hooton tries to run the government from inside the plush offices of the Taxpayer’s Union. WhaleOil and David Farrar get wind of it and tell on him to Judith Collins. National implodes after six months in power and the country heads back to the polls.
Nobody has any idea what the hell Winston Peters is going to do so we should all just go about our normal everyday business until the National Party bribes him the most and they sign the contract.
Well… that was a bit shit.
The empty feeling that appeared deep in my gut last evening around about 8:30pm remains. New Zealand has decided the born-to-rule Tories of the National Party will lead the next government. Yes, we can get in to the semantics of, “But Boon, Labour plus Greens plus Winston First equals 61. That’s a government. We can be the government!”
Yes. A progressive-led government is a technical possibility, but think about this: in 1996 and again in 2005 Winston Peters went with the incumbent government and ended up destroying first National and then Auntie Helen’s government with his nonsense. Everybody knows what he’s like. Like everyone’s drunk uncle, he’s unpredictable and cantankerous. Good if you are in opposition; not so good if you are in government. So, my progressive chums, you have a choice. You can be like National and demand power at any cost (that cost being Winston), or you can just let him go with National and destroy them.
I am urging Jacinda to think very carefully about how much she wants it. You have only been in power for half an hour. Auntie Helen lost the 1996 election and ended up leading our country for nine glorious years. Everyone pines for her. Her legacy is formidable and remains in tact. Does Jacinda really want to risk her legacy before it’s even started. I hope her advisers are pointing this out.
However, as someone pointed out to me on twitter last evening, some New Zealanders need rescuing now. That is the tragedy of this election result. Do progressives push for change now? It’s a hard choice, but then again, I’m not living in a car, or not receiving the mental health care I need, or not able to get “elective” surgery for knee or hip pain, or labeled a “failure” by the education system from the moment I start school, or have gotten e-coli from swimming in the poisoned river running through my town, so it’s very easy for me to say this.
Boomers vs Juniors
How have we got to the point where 46% of New Zealanders are regularly willing to vote Tory? Everybody knows older people are a lot more conservative and a lot easier to turn out. During my twitter feed last night there was a lot of abuse being hurled towards these home-owning boomers. That doesn’t really solve anything. Home owners are just protecting their assets. National, the good Tories they are, played on the fears of those home owners. You’ll be paying more tax! Interest rates will rise! That’s scary stuff if you live inside the better part of $1 million that the bank owns. If you want to attack someone, attack National for their shameless scare tactics.
There is now that divide. Those who own and those who rent. I voted for change because I know there are thousands and thousands of people out there who are worse off than me and need the hand of the state to help them. I know we are all in this together and if we don’t care for the most vulnerable New Zealanders. I’m a teacher so I may see this vulnerable side, but if you don’t see that part of New Zealand it is very easy to ignore it. Also, if you are saying things like, “I’ve worked bloody hard to get where I am,” then that conveniently removes you from the collective responsibility we have to look after the less fortunate.
We live in a society. Tories do not want you to believe in that society. For years they have been looking to divide and conquer. It is in their best interests to have home owners fighting to protect their asset base against the rest of us. It is in their interest to reduce voter engagement – that’s why Hooton was so vocal about early voting being “undemocratic.” It’s not that he’s being foolish, he just doesn’t want you to be exercising your right to vote.
A lot of the boomers I know, my parent’s generation, grew up in or around the 1960s. That was a period of great change and upheaval. When did this generation, who fought against the Vietnam War and for universal human rights, give up fighting for what is right? Or does society become more conservative as they age? I don’t have the answers to these questions because I’m not a boomer or a home owner (Yes, I am aware that not all older people vote for National or are the only home owners in society – these are just thinks).
Bill English is the definite winner in this election. He’s been anointed to carried on the strong and steady plodding of John Key’s government. Home owners are feeling wealthy and they have rewarded him for it. Jacinda Ardern as taken Labour from a third party to a genuine change contender. One wonders what may have happened if she had more than two months and National hadn’t forced the change discussion to be replaced by a tax discussion. Winston Peters again holds the balance of power. We may not know until well into October what may happen. I’m sure he will do what is in the best interests of Winston. Thank you to James Shaw who brought the Greens back after polls threatened their very existence.
Who knows what government we will end up with when the dust settles at the end of October? I’m picking Winston will go with National because National will, unashamedly, offer him everything he wants to remain in power.
Final Final Thinks
This election must be remembered for the saddest of all terrible ironies: Bill English and National lied and lied and lied and got the largest vote; Metiria Turei told the truth and got hounded out of politics.
PADRE: Hello my child.
BILL: Forgive me father for I have sinned. It’s been one week since my last confession.
PADRE: Go on my son.
BILL: I must ask for forgiveness for I have committed sins against others.
PADRE: How have you sinned against others?
BILL: Well, father… when I was asked about Labour’s tax policy… I said they were going to increase income tax.
PADRE: And were they going to increase income tax?
BILL: No… it’s just that they weren’t going to decrease income tax.
PADRE: But you have apologised for the lie my son?
BILL: Oh no… I doubled down father.
PADRE: Doubled down my child?
BILL: Yes father. I lied about lying.
PADRE: Lied about lying?
BILL: Yes. When they asked me whether I was lying about the tax I said I wasn’t lying about the tax.
PADRE: I see… well that’s only two small lies my son.
BILL: Oh no…. there’s more father. I’ve also lied about Labour’s budget having an $11 billion hole.
PADRE: And does it?
PADRE: Are there any amounts of missing spending? Are there any holes in their budget?
BILL: Just the ones on the side so you can pop it into a ring binder.
PADRE: Well. That kind of lying is not desirable. A good Catholic must always endeavour tell the tru….
BILL: …I haven’t finished yet…
PADRE: Oh for Christ’s sake…
BILL: …I’ve also lied about my involvement with the Todd Barclay thing. First I said I didn’t know anything about it, then it turned out I did know loads about it because I’d texted my friend 450 times. Then I lost those texts after I accidentally deleted them after someone told me to. And I’m still telling people it’s an employment dispute I never really had anything to do with – even when they ask me what I did with all the texts.
PADRE: I’m not sure you should say anymore. Congregational privilege only extends so far my son.
BILL: But I’ve got so much more to say. You should have seen the stuff we got up to when John Key was around.
PADRE: I don’t want to know!
BILL: But father…. I must confess. This is my chance to atone. What must I do to atone for my sins?
PADRE: You could start by pulling the lid down on all these lies. The lies must stop. Now.
BILL: But… I’m the leader of the National Party… I can’t lead that party without being able to lie constantly about all of our policies, plans and all the stuff we’ve done or haven’t done.
PADRE: Well… Okay then. After all… this is the Catholic Church. We didn’t get where we are today without being allowed to wash away our responsibilities with 4 hail Mary’s and a small donation to the church.
BILL: How much do you need father?
PADRE: Well… the church roof legal fund….
BILL: How much?
PADRE: Forty-eight thousand, six hundred and forty-seven dollars and sixty-eight cents. Roughly.
BILL: Done and done.
PADRE: Very well then my child. Remember to say your penance and thank God for the Sacrament of Penance. And do you promise not to lie again?
PADRE: Was that a lie.
PADRE: Oh God….
This week Patrick Gower called it. The National Party was guilty of the biggest lie of the campaign. It’s not the only lie, but it’s certainly the biggest.
Labour, apparently, is going to lift income tax. National are arguing, like they think we’re all complete idiots, that black is white. Bill English outlined their argument thusly: because National has legislated for tax CUTS on April 1 next year AND Labour has promised not to bring in those tax cuts if they lead the next government, THEN that is a tax rise BECAUSE on April 1 next year taxes will be above said legislated level.
Obviously Labour are not going to raise income taxes. They have said it. Everybody else has said it. They are not going to cut taxes as National plan to. Keeping something at the same level they currently are is not the same as raising them. But then any normal and sane person can see that.
National have a long history of dishonesty. Even with Nicky Hagar proving through leaked emails that John Key was running a stung operation from his office, Key continued to fudge and obfuscate rather than answer in the affirmative. It was all Nicky’s fault – the well-known communist that he is.
In his piece last night Gower mentioned several recent examples – Brexit, the UK and Aust elections and Trump – where outright lies have won elections. What galls me the most, however, is the fact that Boris Johnson, Trump and, this week, Steven Joyce and “Honest” Bill have all doubled down on their lies. Mike Hosking and Jacinda both told English that nobody agreed there was an $11 billion hole in Labour’s budget. Good old Bill said, “No, that’s not true,” and said loads of people said there was a hole. Over the weekend on Q & A, Corin Dann told English to name someone who agreed.
“I can name loads of people,” he said, repeating Joyce’s lie from earlier in the week without ever actually naming anybody. I’m sure all the National caucus agree with the lie.
It is appalling that there is a constituent of the political class across the world who are so willing to lie to win. The Tories in the UK, Trump and the Republicans in the US, Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition in Australia. All these parties are from the right of centre. When did they all decide they were just going to lie and fabricate noise about their opponents? When did this happen?
American satirist and stand up comedian Bill Maher laments the Democratic Party. On his show he often calls out the Republicans and their ruthlessness and ability to lie and fabricate their way through election campaigns with various attack adverts paid for by various secret billionaires. He urges the Democrats to play the GOP at their own game and rip them to shreds.
The problem with us social liberal types is that we are too inclusive. We believe in giving everybody a fair chance. Tories, on the other hand, don’t give two flying shits about anyone other than themselves and staying in power. That’s why they peddle their fictions as they lie about beneficiaries and students and teachers and how much pollution farmers are responsible for and so on and so on and so on.
Jacinda has been trying to run a positive campaign talking about the issues. Unfortunately for her, National have taken her and Labour out with some well-timed lies targeted at her tax policy and various other mini-lies targeted at Labour’s general economic polices. Maybe she should have been clearer on what the party’s tax plans would mean; what sort of levels the might consider. She wasn’t clear enough and now we have the prospect of another 3 years being run by a bunch of lying liars. Whether or not National have a coalition partner after Saturday is another question.
Thankfully for us all the main political journalists are calling National on their lies. Even if they win on Saturday and form the next government I don’t believe the media will let them National as lightly as they did in 2014. After all, there is a definite mood for change in New Zealand. It’s whether it happens now or in 2020.
Either way, “Honest” Bill’s reputation as a straight shooter is now in tatters. Then again, he’s Catholic so he can always seek absolution for his bullshit.
MyThinks has been delving deep into many, many election issues. From Steven Joyce’s lying to the lying of Steven Joyce, we’ve really worked hard to cover everything. Today in our Auckland studio we are hosting a debate between Finance Minister Joyce and his Labour Party counterpart Grant Robertson.
Host: Good morning gentlemen.
Joyce: Good morning.
Robertson: Good morning Mr Host.
Host: This is shaping up to be a tight election race. National and Labour are neck and neck at the moment. I’ll start with you first Mr Joyce. What is your party offering that is going to make a difference to New Zealanders?
Joyce: That’s a great question. National has a strong record of helping ourselves during the global financial crisis. We have worked hard to ensure that everyone has a fair go…
Robertson: (coughing) Bhu-ll-sht!
Joyce: …that everyone has a fair go and are able to get the jobs and the opportunities they want.
Host: You don’t agree Grant Robertson?
Robertson: No I don’t. National has had nine years, nine long years to improve things, and what have we got? People living in cars, polluted rivers, homeless people dying on church steps, massive waiting lists… I could go on.
Joyce: Please don’t.
Robertson: You’ve had every opportunity and you’ve failed. Your government is not delivering for New Zealanders. It’s just delivering for…
Joyce: That’s a load of rubbish and you know it. National have a proven track record…
Robertson: Prove it.
Joyce: …I just did by saying it. National has a proven track record of delivering jobs and growth. And I wouldn’t be too quick to cast aspersions Grant. Your party is up to some pretty dodgy stuff.
Host: What do you mean?
Joyce: Well… there’s the tax thing. They are going to raise all sorts of taxes and hard-working New Zealanders are going to end up paying a lot more.
Robertson: No we are not. That’s a lie. We are holding a working group to look at whether our tax system is fair.
Joyce: And you’re going to raise income tax on our most vulnerable people.
Robertson: No we are not. We haven’t said we will.
Joyce: It’s clear from your denials that you are totally going to do that. National deny all sorts of stuff we end up doing or are found guilt of. You are totally going to raise taxes and force the poor to sell their babies.
Joyce: It’s obvious. You have totally denied you are going to lift income tax but you have never said that you are not going to force the poor to sell their children. How do we know that’s not your policy?
Robertson: Because we aren’t ACT.
Joyce: Don’t dodge the question. How can New Zealanders be sure that the Labour Party aren’t going to force the hard-working poor of New Zealand to sell their children in order to pay for food and housing?
Robertson: You’re adding stuff to that!
Joyce: Damn right. You’ve never said you aren’t just going to ship all the old people living in rest homes off to the Auckland Islands because it’s just too expensive to pay for their care.
Robertson: I don’t believe what I’m hearing.
Joyce: I don’t either. I don’t think any New Zealander will stand by and let you harvest their organs to sell on the dark web. I certainly won’t.
Host: Where are you getting this information?
Joyce: From a hole. It’s a very big hole. But it’s there. All this information waiting to come out. I’ve run many, many campaigns for the National Party over the years and never, never have I been in charge of one which is up against a party that hasn’t denied they are going to remove all non-New Zealanders from the country via a lunar rocket.
Robertson: We will not do any of those things.
Joyce: But how do we know that if you aren’t denying them?
Host: I think he just did.
Joyce: No he didn’t Mr Host. He said he was, “totally not going to do any of those things.” But what things? What specific things is he not going to do. I haven’t heard him name one since we’ve been sitting here.
Robertson: What are you not going to do?
Robertson: Well… what are you and the National Party not going to do?
Joyce: Oh… I see what you are trying to do there… You’re trying to catch me out. Well I’ll tell you this right here and now. Everything. We are planning not to do everything.
Robertson: So… you’re going to do nothing?
Host: I think he asked if you were going to do nothing. That is, are you planning not to do anything?
Joyce: Um… sorry… what do you mean?
Host: You’re accusing Labour of doing everything so is the National Party planning on doing nothing to deal with all of our problems?
Joyce: Wha.. um… but… the… I’m… Roads! Roads and irrigation!! And tax cuts!!!!!!! Shut up.
Robertson: Hahaahaa! Classic.
Joyce: Shut up. I’m not playing anymore.
Host: Thanks for joining us today gentlemen. I’ve been talking to Finance Minister Steven Joyce and Labour Party finance spokesperson Grant Robertson.