So the latest polls are out. Labour are mid-20s, National are mid-50s, and the Greens are mid-teens.
I tweeted this morning about the vast number (nearly 16%) in the Fairfax Ipsos poll who register as ‘undecided.’ The same figure for Roy Morgan is 5.5%. I’m no polling expert, but I am quite good at the maths. Having one sixth of people not knowing who they will vote for only 2 months out from the election suggests to me that people want to vote for someone else other than Key and his wonderful band of merry joy-bringers, but are yet to be enthused by Labour and the Greens as a viable option.
Also, that means National’s 50-odd% is actually a percentage of DECIDED VOTERS which actually gives them a support figure under 50%.
40% of voters want a change of government. That’s quite a large proportion.
Of course, Farrar is bringing out this old argument again:
However it is hard to see how Labour can credibly form a Government if they get a result in the 20s, even if it becomes mathematically possible.
Although at the moment a change of government is looking unlikely, I would point out that the conservative sector of the vote in Australia has been a coalition for years – made up of the (ironically named) Liberal Party and the country / farming National Party. They even call themselves the Coalition. I don’t hear Tories complaining when that coalition wins power.
Ooooo…. they shouldn’t be allowed to form a coalition because they don’t have the mandate. Labor has the mandate. They are the biggest party.
Yes. It is mathematically possible because you need 61 or so seats to form a majority in an MMP parliament. If you only have 49.003% and all the other parties form a coalition because they decide they have similar ideals then ya-boo, sucks to you.
It’s not Labour or the Green’s fault that National’s chosen coalition partners have self destructed over the course of this parliament and the only one they’ve come close to fostering causes bile to rise in the back of many throats.
Ultimately, when Key and Cunliffe go head-to-head we will see some fireworks and maybe momentum will swing to the progressive side of the spectrum.